International Energy Outlook 2011

This morning I attended the Energy Information Administration’s International Energy Outlook for 2011.  Dr. Howard Gruenspecht, the Acting Administrator and Deputy Administrator of the EIA presented the briefing.  For those of you unfamiliar with IEOs, the International Energy Outlook’s purpose is to give a projection of world energy demand and major energy source through 2035.  The IEO also discusses energy demand among developing countries, as well as recent events that complicate projecting long-term energy outlook. 

The briefing was interesting, but what especially stood out to me was how often “China” and “India” were brought up in the dialogue.  It is projected that energy use will increase about 50% between 2008 and 2035, and half of that increase will be attributed to China and India.  

Unfortunately fossil fuels are predicted to continue to provide 80% of world energy use in 2035.  In consequence, carbon dioxide emissions will rise 43% reaching a total of 43.2 billion metric tons in 2035.  China will account for about three-fourths of the world’s increase in coal-fired generation, of which coal will still fuel the largest share of world’s electricity in 2035.  Though the world will continue to be fossil fuel dependent in the near future, renewables will be the fastest growing energy source at 2.8% per year.  There are projected to be big developments in shale oil and natural gas production.  Oil is predicted to become very expensive as resources are constrained, and so other types of fossil fuels will become more popular.  Japan’s Fukushima nuclear disaster may possibly affect nuclear energy policy in some nations.  However the outlook report does not take politics or policy shifts into account when calculating their projections; instead it looks at resources and technology available, and supply and demand.  It is the tight supply and demand shifts which really influence energy outlook.

The introducer to the briefing commented how she was troubled to hear that energy is becoming more and more non-U.S. centered.  The future is in the hands of China and India! 

Relating this somewhat to IFCE and environmental issues in China, I was thinking about how in China individuals owning automobiles is on the rise.  Personal transportation in China (and other countries which are projected to have significantly high energy demand) will be important in deciding what energy source will be chosen and what the CO emissions associated with it will be.

Statistics are taken from the International Energy Outlook 2011 presentation from the Center for Strategic and International Studies which can be found at: http://csis.org/files/attachments/110919_IEO2011.pdf