"The Environmental and Social Consequences of Glacial Decline: Why Flatlanders Need to Care about High-Altitude Changes"

A few speakers from The Mountain Institute, along with panelists from ClimateWire magazine, USAID, and Center for Naval Analysis (CNA) met together at the Woodrow Wilson Center last Wednesday to discuss the consequences of melting glaciers, specifically in the Himalayan region.  Many of them had just recently been on expeditions to the Himalayas to study glaciers and meet with the local population.

Global warming will cause glaciers to melt much more faster and more often.  As glaciers retreat, they leave behind glacial lakes.  With the onset of glacier melt, floods will occur from ice avalanches falling from glaciers into glacial lakes.  These glacial lakes will then overflow over terminal moraines and cause flooding, called “outburst floods.”  These glacial lakes, which have the potential to cause outburst floods are named dangerous lakes.  There are about 400 marked dangerous lakes in the Himalayas, although this number is hard to calculate accurately.  As global warming continues, people must learn how to adapt or control and manage these dangerous lakes.  Historically it has been recorded that during periods of climate warming, glacial lake outbursts are more common.  Populations especially in the Andes and Himalayas will be at risk. 

The Andes government has already “turned a liability into an asset” by making tunnels for canals from the glacial lakes for use for hydropower and irrigation.  This is an example to follow for the Himalaya region. 

Besides glacial outbursts, there are other problems with melting glaciers.  People in the glacial areas use glaciers as reservoirs for fresh water – however in areas such as the Tibetan plateau and in Bhutan, land use is increasingly intense as deforestation and overgrazing occurs, which leaves little topsoil, so after the rainy season, or glacial melt, all the water runs off and floods the area.

An interesting point mentioned during the panel was how predictions can often times be exaggerated.  This is not necessarily a bad thing though since it leads to people taking action.  Unfortunately I do not remember the specifics, but an example one of the speakers gave was how someone predicted all forests in Ecuador will disappear within 25 years.  However, 25 years later, Ecuador had even MORE forest-cover than previously.  This is because people took action in planting trees and protecting the forests, after predictions looked dire. 

An important focus of the panel was how significant local knowledge is in thinking of solutions or way to adapt to the increasing possibility of glacial outbursts, and climate change in the glacial regions.  In the Andes, local people already have seeds for hundreds of varieties of potatoes for different possible changes in climate.  As stated earlier, the Andes government has already tried to make the travesty of melting glaciers into a benefit by making tunnels from the glacial lakes flow into canals for hydropower and irrigation purposes.  Hopefully the Himalayan people will also be able to adapt to the new glacial environment.  Many of the panel members had been on expeditions to the Himalayan glaciers.  They suggest a mixture of natural and social scientists along with local people in thinking of adaption and mitigation solutions to the melting glaciers and problems they will create.

Liz

Migration as a result of climate change

This morning I attended Conversations about Climate Change Adaption: Displacement, Migration and Planned Relocation at the Brookings Institute.  I found this event particularly interesting because I am currently taking a Climate and Human Ecology class at George Washington University.  In my class we recently talked about how climate has influenced history and events.  For example the Irish potato famine in 1845 led to the Irish migrating to the Americas and New Zealand among other countries.  This historical migration relates to today’s event, which covered the impact on human mobility from climate change and how it is becoming increasingly discussed as it becomes more and more relevant. 

            The panelists held the event in the form of a conversation, exploring the potential impacts of climate change on migration, displacement and planned relocation. They first introduced approaches to climate change and how there is a  shift from trying to only practice climate change mitigation to also incorporating adaptation efforts.  One form of adaption is migration.  Climate change will lead to droughts and food shortages in certain parts of the world, while flooding and inundating others.  This means that migration is necessary.  In fact, the UN’s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change reported that, “the greatest single impact of climate change might be on human migration.”  Panelist Dr. Beyani, a rapporteur on the human rights of internally displaced persons by the Human Rights Council, presented the statistic that by 2050, 100 million people may be displaced by climate change.  In some African countries such as Ethiopia, recent droughts and subsequent famines have already led people to move to other areas.

The last panelist, Dr. Mearns, presented criticisms of the argument that migration is an effective form of climate change adaption.  He argued that it is impossible to record exactly how many people migrated only for reasons of climate change.  He also pointed out that people should be careful about seeming deterministic in saying that migration is due directly from climate change.  Climate change does not directly cause migration; however there are many reasons for migration deriving from climate change such as economic incentives if the effects of climate change prevent someone from making a living how they previously did, such as farmers who live in an area that will be affected by an increasingly hotter and drier climate.

There will have to be a lot of policy written to accommodate all the future migration taking place, such as the planned relocation of peoples in islands that will be inundated, and policy of who or who doesn’t qualify as an urban resident.  In China a household registration system called hukou (户口) exists which keeps rural people in rural areas, and perpetuates China’s urban-rural divide.[1]  If your hukou says you are from the countryside but you work in a city, you don’t get many of the benefits that come from having a city hukou, and you probably have to pay more in fees.  Anyway it will be interesting to see what new policy is made across the world as migration becomes increasingly more relevant from changes in climate.

Liz

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[1] Keith B. Richburg. “China ‘hukou’ system deemed outdated as way of controlling access to services.” The Washington Post. Aug. 15, 2010. http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2010/08/14/AR2010081402009.html