The Kissinger Institute on China and the United States Presents:
China at a Crossroads: Distress over Democratization or an Omen of Collapse?
August 4, 2011
Dr. Wu Junhua began studying China’s macro economy after receiving her PhD from Tokyo University. However, she began to realize that one cannot study China’s economy in a vacuum—history, reform movements, and psychological perspectives must also be addressed. In psychological terms, Dr. Junhua claimed that China currently struggles a type of schizophrenia, coining the term “Two China’s.” One personality of China is confident and rising as a super power, while another personality of China lives in fear of a total collapse. One side is pushing for greater reforms and a call for greater civil rights, while another side can be seen as a revival of the Mao Zedong Cult. She also argues that there appears to be two ways that China could potentially move forward in the future. The government could pursue policies of political reform corresponding with international policies, or the government could pursue policies of political reform while becoming stricter with international influence and policy. She predicts that China will follow the latter—attempting internal reform, but being even more cautious when it comes to external reform. One part of the lecture that I found most interesting was the answer to why China so desperately needs internal reform, even over external reform.
In 2010, the overall budget to maintain domestic order (i.e. police) was greater than the military budget. China is currently more concerned with internal conflict than they are with external disruption. Dr. Junhua cites a few cases that have caused citizens recently to question and rebel against their government. First, in December 2010 was the death of dissident Qian Yunhui. Yunhui led a six-year campaign to protect his neighbors in a land dispute, where Chinese officials attempted to illegally seize land—a common occurrence in China. Yunhui was found dead under the wheel of a truck, and the Chinese government called his death a normal traffic accident. However, the public questioned their government, with villagers claiming they saw four men in security personnel uniforms holding the man down to the ground while the truck then drove on top of him. When photos were released, the public was in horror of his gruesome death and began to question their officials. In addition, villagers who had arrived immediately on the scene of the death would not allow the police to remove the body, which caused a riot between the two.
The New York Times claims that Qian Yunhui’s death caused even more public unrest because it followed the injury of one college student and the death of another, when the two were run over by the son of a deputy police chief. As the son fled the scene he shouted, “Sue me if you dare, my father is Li Gang!” These words directly highlighted “official corruption and nepotism.”
Finally, two bullet trains collided in Zhejiang, China in late July of this year. One train fell off the bridge killing at least 35 and more than 200 were injured. China has rapidly been expanding its high-speed train network, but reports have found that the lines were not safe enough. Public outrage still continues to run high in China, and distrust in public officials who propose and implement these trains is widespread.
It is clear that the public is better off overall now that it was years ago. The revival of the Mao Zedong Cult is not a threat, and the standard of living has improved dramatically for many citizens of China. However, as the government continues to disappoint, and Internet users increase, the government will have to make reforms or continue to face the wrath of its citizens. A version of twitter has emerged in China, and it receives 10 million new users a month. These advances have opened the lines of free speech in China. Some claim that reforms will not be made by the new government in 2012, but rather will wait until the next cycle of government officials in 2022. However, Dr. Junhua claims that China does not have ten years to wait for this type of reform, citing the above as examples of an already increasing internal unrest.
Sources: http://www.nytimes.com/2010/12/29/world/asia/29china.html
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-pacific-14262276
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